if he gets it right, he **wins** (*not you win*).

For Null Hypothesis, we consider the ordinary (basically what is obvious/easy) and then try to reject or accept it. Now, if somebody guesses in a binary game (right or wrong), whats the ordinary, obvious chance of winning: 50%, Right? Hence p=0.5.

Now, if somebody makes a guess 6 times, it doesn’t necessary mean that he will be right exactly 3 times. But if you keep playing this guessing game again and agin, it will average out to be 50%. (Note: This means, if you look at ONLY one set of 6 guesses, sometime it will be correct 3 times, sometime MORE and sometime LESS. Key is average)

In this particular example, the magician guesses 4 times correctly out of 6. That is he correctly guessed more than 50% of the time (66.67%).

Does this give us sufficient confidence to say yes the magician can guess(read) our mind?

Does this mean the Alternate Hypostheis (that he is right more than 50%) is correct?

Week 22 videos show us how to calculate this confidence? It shows how *far* we have to be from the Null Hypothesis to reject it? So the question is *if guessing correctly 4/6 is **far enough* from 3/6 (null hypothesis) that we can say with *high* confidence he can read the mind.

Magician claims he can read our mind. So he has to consistently guess (much) more than 50% (not just one time) to convince that he can actually read the mind.